I only downloaded it yesterday (after some discussion with Fabian), and for Germany as well. I will have to think about how to analyze it. My current method for staring at births data (cumulative figures against previous median) does not help there.
Just as births (and deaths), marriage data have their own, very specific properties (people prefer to marry when it is warm outside, but there are also tax-driven marriages in December; February 2022 has seen record number of marriages in Germany because of memorability, and so on).
I just looked at the Swedish data. There were 22% fewer marriages in 2020 and 2021 than the average for 2000-2022, and those two years rank last. Indeed a strong change!
One should not overestimate special effects like the marriages in February, because these are short term anticipatory or post-hoc effects.
Thank you...
I've added your data to the growing list of infertility and birth rate anomolies
https://totalityofevidence.com/menstrual-irregularities-infertility-and-the-shots/
Thanks, good collection!
Great figures!
In addition, I would like to see how new marriages (as bad proxy for attempts at creating children) would fit into fig. 2:
https://www.statistikdatabasen.scb.se/pxweb/en/ssd/START__BE__BE0101__BE0101L/ManadGiftSkilsm/
Interesting thought! Did you evaluate this data?
I only downloaded it yesterday (after some discussion with Fabian), and for Germany as well. I will have to think about how to analyze it. My current method for staring at births data (cumulative figures against previous median) does not help there.
Just as births (and deaths), marriage data have their own, very specific properties (people prefer to marry when it is warm outside, but there are also tax-driven marriages in December; February 2022 has seen record number of marriages in Germany because of memorability, and so on).
I just looked at the Swedish data. There were 22% fewer marriages in 2020 and 2021 than the average for 2000-2022, and those two years rank last. Indeed a strong change!
One should not overestimate special effects like the marriages in February, because these are short term anticipatory or post-hoc effects.
Excellent work!
Canadian birth data plots are here:
https://opencanada.shinyapps.io/info/#section-live-births-vs-stillbirths
(or from www.OpenCanada.info)
Note Canada has not published yet for 2022