6 Comments

Funny, in NL, it looks, nothing special on birthrates.

I created some figures last week, and the 2005-2019 trend shows us no deviations.

It is dutch, but you can use the translation function.

https://twitter.com/BonneKlok/status/1785613505032245291?t=GvgqcxdJksRMF4P2Bj6aQw&s=19

Expand full comment

You in NL have had a declining birth trend in recent years, which should be carefully determined and then compared with the latest figures. This was omitted in the X article. Maybe you should compare your results with cm27874's European evaluation (the xlsx file). Things look a little different there.

Expand full comment

I use a different method. I try to standardize by per 100k inhabitants.

Instead of an median (2017-2021), i use the option TREND in excel on the 2005-2019 range. and predict the birthrate for 2020-2023

Expand full comment

Do you have an explanation for the positive outlier (btw, "uitschieter" is a marvelous word) in 2021? A similar effect is visible in a few other countries (Germany, Switzerland, Denmark, Austria, Belgium, Finland), although less pronounced. Are these the "happy lockdowners" (as opposed to Portugal, say)?

Expand full comment

That's indeed also the explanation in NL. I don't know if they were really happy with the lockdowns , however, they try to made the best of the situation.

Expand full comment

I added a small analysis of the Dutch numbers to your X article. The Netherlands had an unusually large increase in births in 2021. The decline thereafter is similar to that in other countries. However, it was not that far below the previous year's values.

https://x.com/ULorre/status/1788266430334751052

Expand full comment