Birth decline 2022-2023 in Germany and Sweden

Way down

Beginning of May 2024, Germany delivered the last missing birth figures for 2023, two months late. Sweden, on the other hand, has already provided data up to February 2024.

The main result of both countries is a renewed decline in births in 2023 compared to 2022. The same was observed in almost all European countries. In 2021, the birth figures were normal in Sweden and above estimate in Germany, due to stronger pandemic measures in Germany than in Sweden.

Relative deviations of births

year       DE       SE
----------------------
2021    0.016    0.007
2022   -0.056   -0.073
2023   -0.114   -0.110
2024            -0.114 *)

*) Jan-Feb 2024

Birth figures normally follow a regular seasonal pattern and a minor trend in both countries. The plunge in Jan 2022 and the subsequent worsening in 2023 are clearly visible (Fig. 1,2).

Fig. 1: Time course of monthly births in Germany. The forecast is generated by a Time Series Linear Model (TSLM). 95%-PI (light blue).

Fig. 2: Time course of monthly births in Sweden. The forecast is generated by TSLM. 95%-PI (light blue).

A meaningful result is provided by the course of abortions (induced). Here, Germany showed a marked drop in Q1 2021 with a duration of 3 quarters (Fig. 3). Before we examine this in more detail, we have to become aware of the number relations. Approximately one in 10 pregnancies is terminated through an induced abortion. If the abortion rate changes by e.g. 5%, the later births only show a deviation of 5 per mille, which is within the normal range of fluctuation. The direct influence of abortions on later births should therefore be classified as weak. However, a significant change in the abortion rate can reflect changes in the behavior of expectant mothers or can be a measure of the number of pregnancies and therefore a predictor of later births. In other words, we can draw conclusions from changes in abortions and later births, but not from either variable alone. One would normally suppose that fewer abortions should lead to more births, but here the opposite occurred. A reasonable explanation is that fewer women became pregnant. After Q2 2022, abortions move consistently above expected levels. In Sweden, the development is not so clear because data is only available annually (Fig. 4). However, there is also a comparatively low value for 2021.

Fig. 3: Abortions (quarterly) and TSLM-forecast in Germany. 95%-PI (light blue).

Fig. 4: Annual abortions in Sweden.

The Figures 5 and 6 show the temporal connection between C19 vaccinations, abortions and the births. The latter are given as relative deviations from the expected value.

Fig. 5: Temporal context of births, vaccinations and abortions in Germany.

Fig. 6: Temporal context of births and vaccinations in Sweden.

There are subtile differences in the vaccination numbers. The peaks of the first and second vaccination wave happened approximately 6 weeks later in Sweden. A very interesting consideration is the slow start of the vaccination campaign in Sweden, combined with a gradual decline of births in early 2022, followed by a stronger falling late 2022. In Germany, vaccination numbers rose stronger in early 2021, and the subsequent decline in birth rates was sharper.

In any case, the nine-month time difference between the start of the vaccination campaigns and the decline in births is a strong indication of the causality of the vaccinations, at least in this phase. This argument is particularly important because the same thing has been observed in almost all countries.

We have to deal with the abortions in Germany again because they show a plenty of abnormalities. First, the decline occurred abruptly in Q1 2021 and coincided with increasing vaccination numbers. Second, the relative magnitude of the decline was similar to the subsequent declines in birth rates. Third, abortion rates rose temporarily in the last quarter of 2021, shortly after the local minimum in vaccination rates. Fourth, the booster peak was followed by another decline in abortions in Q1 2022. Fifth, the booster peak was weaker than the first vaccination peak, and the same is true for abortion numbers. All of this looks like there is a very clear connection between vaccinations and abortions as a measure of the pregnancies that occurred in this phase.

The hypothesis that best explains all observations is that vaccinations cause direct damage to fertility. Other influences are also hard to imagine, except through excess imagination, but then they would be unproven.

At this point I would like to mention Bujard (DE) and Andersson (SE). In a working paper as of June 2022, they came out with the claim "The association between the onset of mass vaccinations and subsequent fertility decline indicates that people adjusted their behavior to get vaccinated before becoming pregnant, as societies were opening up with post-pandemic life conditions", without providing any evidence for it. If that were true, the numbers would have quickly normalized, but they did not. In January 2024, their boring quark even made it into the international specialist press. The paper contains 63 hits for "vaccination", but they neither refute nor prove any direct connection to the vaccinations. In summary, their refusal to seriously examine the most pressing question is a prototype model for the zero benefit of tax-funded syndicate science.

Births continued to decline in 2023, which is unlikely to be associated with medical complications. In Q3 2022, abortions had already risen above expectations, although this did not lead to increased births. A likely interpretation is that on the base of already reduced fertility, additional factors may have appeared. We have also to take socio-economic factors into account here, e.g. fears of war, mistrust in the government, inflation, money worries, uncertain energy supplies and a lack of housing, to name just the most important ones. The fact that almost all European countries are hit by a similar birth decline calls for a common effect and challenges at least some factors.

A distinction between medical and socio-economic influences is not possible at the current stage.