Excess mortality and health: situation report for Germany mid-2023
Behind a pretty curtain abundant harm
After two significantly over-mortal years, life expectancy and total death rates in the first half of 2023 were overall close to the expected values. Nevertheless, there is excess mortality in the age groups below about 60 years, and the DAK (Deutsche Angestellten-Krankenkasse - German Employees' Health Insurance Fund) registered record sickness rates in the working population. Heat-related mortality has so far failed to materialize.
The positive development in life expectancy since the beginning of 2023 (Fig. 1), as pleasing as it may appear, is deceptive.
Fig. 1: Evolution of weekly life expectancy (orange) compared to the ARIMA forecast from the 2016-2020 reference period (blue). Source data: Weekly deaths and population data from Destatis.
The age-dependent risk ratios show an uneven picture, in which the upward swings predominate (values >1, Fig. 2).
Fig. 2: Risk ratios in 2023, calendar weeks 1-29, by age cohorts. The expected values of the cohort mortality risks were determined from the reference period 2016-2020, taking into account trend and seasonality (TSLM time series analysis).
If age differentiation is applied at age 60, a difference becomes visible. While the cohort >60, which is dominant according to the raw numbers, developed normally (not shown here), the cohort <60 has shown cumulative excess mortality since the beginning of 2023 (Fig. 3).
Fig. 3: Cumulative excess mortality since 2021, cohort <60
A press release from the DAK also points to a very unfavorable health trend in the working population. The health insurer, with 5.5 million insured, states:
"Sickness rate at 5.5 percent reaches new record since the start of the half-year statistics in 2013."
And further:
"In the first half of 2023, there were unusually many, sickness-related absences from work in Germany. Half of the workforce had already taken at least one sick leave by the end of June. Such a high rate (50.1 percent) is usually only reached at the end of a year. The number of cases increased by 61 percent compared to the same period last year."
The DAK provides a supplementary brief study in which the most frequent illness groups are broken down by ICD digits. The comparison of the respective 1st half-years of 2023 and 2022 reveals a downright dismaying scenario (Tab. 1).
Tab. 1: Analysis of DAK data by number of cases of incapacity to work per 100 years of insured persons in comparison between 2023 and 2022, first half of each year.
With the exception of the ICD group "UZ", two to three-digit percentage case increases appear within only one year! The strongest increase is seen in sick leave due to respiratory infections - a strong indication of an impairment of the immune system. Particularly noteworthy are the ICD codes for neoplasms, including cancer. The 29% increase is an order of magnitude greater than the annual increase in cancer diagnoses recorded in earlier years. Dr. Hans-Joachim Kremer, in a series of articles on TKP, had demonstrated significant cancer risk signals in vaccine adverse event databases. They now seem to be reflected in health insurance data as well and to be related to immunological damage. The multitude of different types of diseases involving all organ systems with a focus on damage to the immune system together with effects on carcinogenesis corresponds to the medical explanatory models and the predictions of conscientious, vaccine-critical physicians, biologists and toxicologists as well as to the pathological findings known so far.
The data of several million insured persons are of universal significance, and the diseases are accompanied by a statistically verifiable excess mortality of younger people. The question arises why older people seem to be exempt from this development. Death waves are more pronounced in the elderly, and they are affected to a greater extent than younger people by pull-forward and catch-up effects (dry tinder effect, harvesting effect). Therefore, after two years of fulminant excess mortality phases, a pronounced harvesting effect can be assumed among the elderly, which puts the overall mortality figures and life expectancy in a favorable light. Persons >60 account for about 90% of deaths and therefore dominate the overall figures. In fact, however, the elderly were subject to the same health risks from corona protection and vaccination as younger persons. Therefore, a plausible assumption is that the described harvesting effect masks health damage also to the elderly.
Also in the clinical everyday life the damage of the public health seems to have become finally conspicuous. The "Ärztegruppe-Tübingen" requested the Standing Commission on Vaccination STIKO to withdraw the still existing recommendations, which was rejected by the chairman Mertens under specious reasons. The Physicians' Group Tübingen then addressed Mertens in an open letter, which is scientifically well founded. The demands of the medical association Hippokratischer Eid go into the same direction.
Conspicuousness wherever you look. Death and birth statistics are sounding the alarm, insurance companies are registering skyrocketing billing data and pathologists are seeing horrific damage patterns in vaccine victims. All of this was predictable and was predicted. Those who touted C19 vaccinations as "effective and safe" and defamed vaccination opponents now look away and prefer to fantasize about heat deaths that don't even exist this summer. After all - the heat would be a harmless problem compared to what responsible public welfare would currently have to deal with.