German death figures 2023 - almost back to normal, still a disturbing overall picture
It's not the numbers that lie.
Destatis yesterday published deaths figures for the whole of 2023. In order to obtain a reliable assessment of the situation, I calculated the weekly time series of life expectancy, applied an ARIMA forecast from the reference epoch 2016-2020 and compared it with the actual values. In this way, results are now available for all 4 pandemic years to date (Fig. 1)
Fig. 1: Weekly life expectancy 2020-2023 in Germany. Top: ARIMA-Forecast and actual values. Middle: weekly deviations (actual value - forecast). Bottom: Cumulated Deviations
The blue curve is very informative.
2020 - constant slightly above expected value
2021 - losses began in the 2nd quarter
2022 - losses continue
2023 - back to almost normal
The ranking since 2017.
2019
2020
2023
2017
2018
2021
2022
2021 and 2022 achieved the worst rankings.
I don't need to explain what distinguishes these years from the others.