Follow-up: Sweden reports 14.2% fewer births in April 2023

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Sweden yesterday reported birth figures that represent the largest monthly deficit since the birth decline beginning in January 2022.

The current figures also show a further deterioration compared to the previous year. During the first 4 months of 2023, the decline averaged 11.1% after 7.3% in 2022 (Fig. 1).

Fig. 1: Monthly births in Sweden with fit (Time Series Linear Model, light blue), forecast (blue) and 95% CI (light blue).

Usually Swedish reporting figures move little after initial release. It can therefore be assumed that no significant change will happen anymore. This diminishes hopes for a rapid normalization after vaccination activity subsides (Fig. 2).

Fig. 2: Temporal relationship of birth decline and C19 vaccination coverage of the reproductive age group. Vaccinations are given in jabs / (population * month), source: ECDC vaccination data.

Correlation calculations confirm this assumption. The direct rank correlation of vaccination numbers and birth decline yields only a weak and not significant correlation (Spearman's 𝜌 = -0.13, p = 0.3). The situation is quite the opposite for cumulative vaccination numbers and birth decline (Spearman's 𝜌 = -0.83, p < 1E-5). Thus, this relationship is strong and highly significant. Obviously, we are dealing with accumulated pathogens with an unknown duration of action.

In Sweden, vaccination numbers among fertile individuals had last reached very high numbers in January 2022. The children conceived during this period were born around October 2022. After that, there should have been an immediate improvement if it was only short-term damage to fertility. In fact, this has not happened for 6 months now.

In a German-Swedish study (2022), the authors pronounced the clear timely relationship between vaccinations and birth collapse. They gave as an explanation that couples had postponed their desire to have children until they got a vaccination. Of course, this was nothing but baseless speculation. What do Bujard & Andersson say now? Their hypothesis is now debunked as crystal ball fortune telling by reliable data.